Yield Curve (10Y–2Y) under Donald Trump (second term)
Yield Curve (10Y–2Y) went from 0.36 pts in Donald Trump (second term)'s first month to 0.39 pts at month 22 (the latest reading): a change of +0.0 pts. At that point in office it ranks #6 of 9 administrations since 1969. Official data from the Federal Reserve.
All administrations at month 22
| Rank | Administration | Value at month 22 | Change since month 1 | Latest / end of month 48 | Primary federal source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Barack Obama | 2.16 pts | +0.5 pts | 1.46 pts (month 48) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
| #2 | George W. Bush | 2.03 pts | +1.6 pts | 1.22 pts (month 48) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
| #3 | Bill Clinton | 1.01 pts | −1.2 pts | 0.52 pts (month 48) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
| #4 | George H. W. Bush | 0.84 pts | +0.9 pts | 2.10 pts (month 48) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
| #5 | Ronald Reagan | 0.72 pts | +1.4 pts | 1.32 pts (month 48) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
| #6 | Donald Trump (second term) · in office | 0.39 pts | +0.0 pts | 0.39 pts (month 22) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
| #7 | Donald Trump (first term) | 0.29 pts | −0.9 pts | 0.79 pts (month 48) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
| #8 | Jimmy Carter | −0.21 pts | −1.5 pts | −1.24 pts (month 48) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
| #9 | Joe Biden | −0.40 pts | −1.4 pts | 0.16 pts (month 48) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
Methodology and source verification
10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield, in percentage points (monthly). Below zero (inverted) has preceded every U.S. recession since the late 1970s.
Every administration is aligned to its own inauguration: month 1 is the month it took office, and the comparison runs to month 48 (the first term). Each administration is compared at the same month in office, so a president halfway through a term is never measured against another's full four years.
Primary source: Federal Reserve. Retrieved from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), series T10Y2YM, refreshed hourly. Latest observation 2026-10-01, first published 2026-11-02. Full methods: methodology.