Yield Curve (10Y–2Y) under Donald Trump (first term)
Yield Curve (10Y–2Y) went from 1.22 pts in Donald Trump (first term)'s first month to 0.79 pts at month 48: a change of −0.4 pts. At that point in office it ranks #5 of 8 administrations since 1969. Official data from the Federal Reserve.
All administrations at month 48
| Rank | Administration | Value at month 48 | Change since month 1 | Latest / end of month 48 | Primary federal source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | George H. W. Bush | 2.10 pts | +2.2 pts | 2.10 pts (month 48) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
| #2 | Barack Obama | 1.46 pts | −0.3 pts | 1.46 pts (month 48) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
| #3 | Ronald Reagan | 1.32 pts | +2.0 pts | 1.32 pts (month 48) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
| #4 | George W. Bush | 1.22 pts | +0.8 pts | 1.22 pts (month 48) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
| #5 | Donald Trump (first term) | 0.79 pts | −0.4 pts | 0.79 pts (month 48) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
| #6 | Bill Clinton | 0.52 pts | −1.7 pts | 0.52 pts (month 48) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
| #7 | Joe Biden | 0.16 pts | −0.8 pts | 0.16 pts (month 48) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
| #8 | Jimmy Carter | −1.24 pts | −2.5 pts | −1.24 pts (month 48) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
Methodology and source verification
10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield, in percentage points (monthly). Below zero (inverted) has preceded every U.S. recession since the late 1970s.
Every administration is aligned to its own inauguration: month 1 is the month it took office, and the comparison runs to month 48 (the first term). Each administration is compared at the same month in office, so a president halfway through a term is never measured against another's full four years.
Primary source: Federal Reserve. Retrieved from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), series T10Y2YM, refreshed hourly. Latest observation 2026-10-01, first published 2026-11-02. Full methods: methodology.