Yield Curve (10Y–2Y) under every president, month by month
At month 22 in office, Trump II is at 0.39 pts: #6 of 9 administrations (average 0.76 pts). Official Federal Reserve data.
Every administration at month 22
| Rank | Administration | Value at month 22 | Change since month 1 | Latest / end of month 48 | Primary federal source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Barack Obama | 2.16 pts | +0.5 pts | 1.46 pts (month 48) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
| #2 | George W. Bush | 2.03 pts | +1.6 pts | 1.22 pts (month 48) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
| #3 | Bill Clinton | 1.01 pts | −1.2 pts | 0.52 pts (month 48) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
| #4 | George H. W. Bush | 0.84 pts | +0.9 pts | 2.10 pts (month 48) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
| #5 | Ronald Reagan | 0.72 pts | +1.4 pts | 1.32 pts (month 48) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
| #6 | Donald Trump (second term) · in office | 0.39 pts | +0.0 pts | 0.39 pts (month 22) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
| #7 | Donald Trump (first term) | 0.29 pts | −0.9 pts | 0.79 pts (month 48) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
| #8 | Jimmy Carter | −0.21 pts | −1.5 pts | −1.24 pts (month 48) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
| #9 | Joe Biden | −0.40 pts | −1.4 pts | 0.16 pts (month 48) | Federal Reserve · T10Y2YM |
Methodology and source verification
10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield, in percentage points (monthly). Below zero (inverted) has preceded every U.S. recession since the late 1970s.
Every administration is aligned to its own inauguration: month 1 is the month it took office, and the comparison runs to month 48 (the first term). Each administration is compared at the same month in office, so a president halfway through a term is never measured against another's full four years.
Primary source: Federal Reserve. Retrieved from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), series T10Y2YM, refreshed hourly. Latest observation 2026-10-01, first published 2026-11-02. Full methods: methodology.