Fact-check · Nov 4, 2026 · Donald Trump
“We have tremendous oil flowing out of the Hormuz right now. At the beginning, there was none.”
MISLEADING
What the record shows
Hormuz flows fell to 14.6 mb/d in Q1 2026 (30% drop from 20.4 mb/d year prior). As of late September 2026, Kpler reports 13.1 mb/d (77% of pre-war); Goldman Sachs estimates 23.3 mb/d including dark tankers.
Claim misrepresents baseline (flows never reached zero) and overstates current recovery. Independent trackers show flows remain well below pre-crisis levels.
Sources
- The Strait of Hormuz: Security Developments and Impacts on Oil, Gas, and Other Commodities
- Strait of Hormuz - About - IEA
- How Much Oil Flows Through the Strait of Hormuz?
- New EIA Report Shows Extent of Hormuz Oil Disruptions - IER
- How Much of the World’s Shipping & Oil Goes Through the Strait of Hormuz? 2025 vs 2026 Percentages of Global Supply
- Strait of Hormuz Oil Flows: Reading the 77% Decline
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