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Beta
Whole terms
Same point in office
Display
Per-metric
Raw %
$ values
Real
Nominal
Metric
Clinton
'93–'01
Bush W.
'01–'09
Obama
'09–'17
Trump
'17–'21
Biden
'21–'25
Trump II
so far
Growth
GDP Growth
Annual %
+0.6 pp
3.5% → 4.1%
-4.0 pp
4.1% → 0.1%
+1.7 pp
0.1% → 1.8%
-3.9 pp
1.8% → -2.1%
+5.1 pp
-2.1% → 3.0%
…
Real GDP
$T (2017$)
+3.9%/yr
$10.4T → $14.1T
+2.2%/yr
$14.1T → $16.8T
+1.7%/yr
$16.8T → $19.1T
+1.5%/yr
$19.1T → $20.3T
+3.6%/yr
$20.3T → $23.4T
…
Retail Sales
$B per month, annual avg
+3.7%/yr
$162B → $267B
+0.9%/yr
$267B → $358B
+1.5%/yr
$358B → $449B
+1.3%/yr
$449B → $510B
+2.1%/yr
$510B → $672B
…
Housing Starts
Thousands, annual rate
+3.4%/yr
1,201K → 1,573K
-6.7%/yr
1,573K → 900K
+3.4%/yr
900K → 1,177K
+4.3%/yr
1,177K → 1,394K
-0.4%/yr
1,394K → 1,370K
…
Labor Market
Unemployment
Rate %
-3.5 pp
7.5% → 4.0%
+1.8 pp
4.0% → 5.8%
-0.9 pp
5.8% → 4.9%
+3.2 pp
4.9% → 8.1%
-4.1 pp
8.1% → 4.0%
…
Labor Participation
Rate %
+0.7 pp
66.4% → 67.1%
-1.1 pp
67.1% → 66.0%
-3.2 pp
66.0% → 62.8%
-1.1 pp
62.8% → 61.7%
+0.9 pp
61.7% → 62.6%
…
Jobs Added
Millions/yr
+2.9M/yr
+1.2M → +1.9M
+0.3M/yr
+1.9M → -3.5M
+1.3M/yr
-3.5M → +2.3M
−0.7M/yr
+2.3M → -9.3M
+3.9M/yr
-9.3M → +1.5M
…
Manufacturing Jobs
Jobs (M)
+0.5 pp
16.8M → 17.3M
-3.9 pp
17.3M → 13.4M
-1.1 pp
13.4M → 12.3M
-0.2 pp
12.3M → 12.1M
+0.7 pp
12.1M → 12.8M
…
Job Openings
Millions
-1.9%/yr
4.3M → 3.8M
+5.6%/yr
3.8M → 5.9M
+2.0%/yr
5.9M → 6.3M
+4.8%/yr
6.3M → 7.7M
…
Openings per Job Seeker
Openings ÷ unemployed
-0.2 pp
0.65× → 0.44×
+0.3 pp
0.44× → 0.76×
-0.2 pp
0.76× → 0.61×
+0.5 pp
0.61× → 1.14×
…
Prices & Wages
Inflation
CPI %
2.6% avg
3.0% → 3.4%
2.8% avg
3.4% → 3.8%
1.4% avg
3.8% → 1.3%
1.9% avg
1.3% → 1.3%
4.9% avg
1.3% → 3.0%
…
Core Inflation
CPI ex food & energy, %
2.6% avg
3.7% → 2.4%
2.2% avg
2.4% → 2.3%
1.8% avg
2.3% → 2.2%
2.0% avg
2.2% → 1.7%
4.5% avg
1.7% → 3.4%
…
Gas Prices
$/gal
+1.1%/yr
$1.09 → $1.46
+7.3%/yr
$1.46 → $3.22
-6.7%/yr
$3.22 → $2.07
-1.7%/yr
$2.07 → $2.08
+6.1%/yr
$2.08 → $3.19
…
Real Wages
YoY %
0.8% avg
0.1% → 1.4%
0.0% avg
1.4% → 0.1%
0.4% avg
0.1% → 1.6%
2.4% avg
1.6% → 5.9%
-0.7% avg
5.9% → 1.0%
…
Purchasing Power
Value of $1 (Jan 1969$)
-2.5%/yr
$0.25 → $0.21
-2.7%/yr
$0.21 → $0.17
-1.3%/yr
$0.17 → $0.15
-1.9%/yr
$0.15 → $0.14
-4.7%/yr
$0.14 → $0.11
…
Mortgage Rate
30-year fixed, %
-0.3 pp
8.4% → 8.1%
-2.0 pp
8.1% → 6.0%
-2.4 pp
6.0% → 3.6%
-0.5 pp
3.6% → 3.1%
+3.6 pp
3.1% → 6.7%
…
Living Standards
Median Income
Household, inflation-adjusted
+1.6%/yr
$64.6K → $73.6K
-0.2%/yr
$73.6K → $72.3K
+0.8%/yr
$72.3K → $77.2K
+2.0%/yr
$77.2K → $83.6K
+0.5%/yr
$83.6K → $85.2K
…
Poverty Rate
%
-3.5 pp
14.8% → 11.3%
+1.9 pp
11.3% → 13.2%
-0.5 pp
13.2% → 12.7%
-1.2 pp
12.7% → 11.5%
-0.8 pp
11.5% → 10.7%
…
Inequality
Top 10% Share %
+3.0 pp
40.5% → 43.5%
-0.1 pp
43.5% → 43.4%
+2.4 pp
43.4% → 45.8%
+0.2 pp
45.8% → 46.0%
+1.2 pp
46.0% → 47.2%
…
Fiscal
Debt-to-GDP
Ratio %
-6.1 pp
61.7% → 55.6%
+11.5 pp
55.6% → 67.1%
+36.9 pp
67.1% → 104.0%
+18.3 pp
104.0% → 122.3%
-2.2 pp
122.3% → 120.1%
…
Budget Balance
$Billions, fiscal year
−$40B/yr
−$290B → $236B
−$251B/yr
$236B → −$459B
−$909B/yr
−$459B → −$587B
−$1.4T/yr
−$587B → −$3,132B
−$1.9T/yr
−$3,132B → −$1,833B
…
Trade Balance
$Billions
−$155B/yr
−$39B → −$355B
−$585B/yr
−$355B → −$692B
−$465B/yr
−$692B → −$463B
−$557B/yr
−$463B → −$637B
−$841B/yr
−$637B → −$885B
…
Interest Rate
Fed Funds %
+2.7 pp
3.5% → 6.2%
-4.3 pp
6.2% → 1.9%
-1.5 pp
1.9% → 0.4%
-0.0 pp
0.4% → 0.4%
+4.8 pp
0.4% → 5.1%
…
Saving Rate
% of disposable income
-5.1 pp
9.4% → 4.3%
-0.2 pp
4.3% → 4.1%
+1.3 pp
4.1% → 5.4%
+9.7 pp
5.4% → 15.1%
-8.8 pp
15.1% → 6.3%
…
Markets & Rates
S&P 500
Year-End
+13.2%/yr
466 → 1,320
-7.3%/yr
1,320 → 903
+10.5%/yr
903 → 2,239
+11.7%/yr
2,239 → 3,756
+6.6%/yr
3,756 → 5,881
…
10-Year Treasury
Yield %, annual avg
-1.0 pp
7.0% → 6.0%
-2.4 pp
6.0% → 3.7%
-1.8 pp
3.7% → 1.8%
-1.0 pp
1.8% → 0.9%
+3.3 pp
0.9% → 4.2%
…
5-Year Treasury
Yield %, annual avg
-0.0 pp
6.2% → 6.2%
-3.4 pp
6.2% → 2.8%
-1.5 pp
2.8% → 1.3%
-0.8 pp
1.3% → 0.5%
+3.6 pp
0.5% → 4.1%
…
Yield Curve (10Y–2Y)
Spread, pts, annual avg
-2.5 pp
+2.24 pts → −0.23 pts
+1.9 pp
−0.23 pts → +1.66 pts
-0.6 pp
+1.66 pts → +1.01 pts
-0.5 pp
+1.01 pts → +0.50 pts
-0.7 pp
+0.50 pts → −0.16 pts
…
Sentiment
Consumer Sentiment
Index (1966=100)
+30.3 pp
77 → 108
-43.8 pp
108 → 64
+28.0 pp
64 → 92
-10.3 pp
92 → 82
-9.0 pp
82 → 73
…
Per-metric view: percentage-point (pp) change for rates, real annualized for prices/income, average for inflation and flow values.
Worsened
Improved