Fact check: LIVE: President Trump‘s 2026 Republican Midterm Convention: Day One - 9/9/26
Donald Trump · September 9, 2026 · 162 min
Every claim, in order
- MOSTLY TRUEat 77:38· said in 2 broadcasts
“In the three months leading up to the twenty twenty four presidential election, the spot price of gold jumped over 12%”
What the data shows: Gold rose from approximately $2,503 (August 30, 2024) to $2,790 (October 30, 2024), an increase of 11.46%, according to APMEX and StatMuse commodity price data.
- TRUEat 94:58
“Our crime levels are down at historic rates”
What the data shows: FBI data shows violent crime fell 9.3% in 2025 (largest decline since 1936), with murder rate at 4.1 per 100,000 (tied for lowest since 1955-56). Property crime also at lowest levels since 1969.
- MOSTLY TRUEat 95:45
“we have the safest border in history”
What the data shows: CBP reports record-low apprehensions and encounters under Trump administration: 8,039 nationwide apprehensions in June 2025 (lowest in CBP history), down 96% from Biden-era monthly average. However, July 2026 shows 102% increase from July 2025, indicating trend reversal.
- MOSTLY TRUEat 96:31
“The rates have gone up in deportations immensely, even since Obama's terms.”
What the data shows: FY 2025 ICE removals: 442,637 total (including ~110k voluntary returns); formal removals ~330k. Obama FY 2013 peak: 438,421. FY 2026 through July: 356,389. Rates have increased from Biden/late Obama years but comparable to Obama's 2013 peak.
- MISLEADINGat 98:50
“Used to be $20 is now 40 or 50”
What the data shows: BLS limited-service meals index rose 3.3% YoY as of July 2026. McDonald's prices up ~40% since 2019, ~100% since 2014. Average fast food meal now $8-12; with sides, ~$20 total.
- MISLEADINGat 141:26
“paychecks just stood still”
What the data shows: 1.4% — Real Wages (YoY) for Biden at month 47 of the term (~2024), per FRED.
- TRUEat 141:26
“prices climb”
What the data shows: 2.9% — Inflation (CPI) in 2024 (Biden), per BLS CPI-U.
- FALSEat 147:03
“Groceries went up 20%”
What the data shows: 2.9% — Inflation (CPI) in 2024 (Biden), per BLS CPI-U.
- MISLEADINGat 147:50· said in 11 broadcasts
“We passed legislation legislation that created the largest tax cut in American history.”
What the data shows: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (Trump admin) reduced federal revenues by ~$1.9T over 10 years (CBO). The 2024 tax legislation extended provisions but did not create a larger cut than TCJA 2017 in nominal or present-value terms.
- MOSTLY TRUEat 147:50· said in 2 broadcasts
“Up to $4,000 a year back in the pockets of hardworking Americans”
What the data shows: Average tax cut ranges from $2,900 (Tax Policy Center) to $3,752 (Republican Senate) to nearly $4,000 (Wells Fargo refund analysis), varying significantly by income level. Treasury data shows $815-$1,250 average for middle-income filers.
- MOSTLY TRUEat 157:38· said in 2 broadcasts
“in the three months leading up to the twenty twenty four presidential election, the spot price of gold jumped over 12%”
What the data shows: Gold rose from approximately $2,500 in early August 2024 to $2,790 on October 30, 2024—an increase of 11.6%, which rounds to 12%.
- TRUEat 159:57· said in 2 broadcasts
“Republicans have delivered a a $50,000,000,000 rural health transformation program”
What the data shows: CMS confirmed a $50 billion Rural Health Transformation Program established under the Working Families Tax Cuts Act (signed July 4, 2025), distributing $10 billion annually from 2026-2030 to all 50 states.
- MISLEADINGat 164:38
“Biden's border disaster drove home prices up 30%”
What the data shows: Median home prices rose ~33% from Jan 2021 to Jan 2025 (FRED MSPUS), but attribution to 'border' alone is unsupported. Multiple factors drove housing: low rates, supply shortage, inflation, pandemic demand shift.
- MOSTLY TRUEat 164:38
“drove rent prices up 20%”
What the data shows: Median rent rose ~20–22% from Jan 2021 to Jan 2025 (BLS CPI-U, Rent of Primary Residence, series CPIAUCSL). Causation to border policy alone unsubstantiated.
- TRUEat 168:32
“Prosecutors charged the head of a group called abundant blessing. Who allegedly stole $23,000,000 of our taxpayer dollars meant for our homeless neighbors.”
What the data shows: DOJ charged Alexander Soofer, CEO of Abundant Blessings, with fraudulently obtaining $23 million in homeless housing funds between 2018-2025, allegedly diverting millions to personal use including a $7M mansion and luxury goods.
- MISLEADINGat 169:19· said in 3 broadcasts
“Opportunity zones have lifted more than 1,000,000 people in our country out of poverty.”
What the data shows: CEA projected in August 2020 that capital raised could lift 1 million people out of poverty (11% reduction in OZ poverty rates). Independent research finds modest or no measurable poverty reduction effects to date.
- MOSTLY TRUEat 169:19
“created more than 400,000 new housing units in urban and rural areas”
What the data shows: EIG research using HUD data found 313,000 net new housing units Q3 2019–Q3 2024; academic study found 416,000 new residential addresses. Earlier estimates cited ~300,000–400,000 units since 2017 inception.
- FALSEat 180:44
“I worked with president Trump and Republicans in congress to level up our Medicaid assessments in bringing billions of dollars back to Wisconsin's BadgerCare program”
What the data shows: Trump's 2025 Working Families Tax Cut Act included $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts over 10 years (CBO). Wisconsin faces $7 billion in cuts over 10 years and will lose 270,000 enrollees, not gain billions in funding.
- MOSTLY TRUEat 190:14
“Families were getting crushed. By Biden inflation.”
What the data shows: CPI rose 8.0% in 2022 (BLS); peaked at 9.1% year-over-year in June 2022. Census/Fed surveys show 97% of households reported price increases; 47% felt very stressed by inflation. Real wages declined 1.3% over Biden's term despite nominal gains.
- MISLEADINGat 191:11
“We empowered our 30% tax hike”
What the data shows: Trump administration announced 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico (effective Aug 1, 2026) and raised China tariffs to 30%. However, many tariffs faced legal challenges; Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs in Feb 2026.
- TRUEat 191:59· said in 2 broadcasts
“We secured $50,000,000,000 for rural health care.”
What the data shows: $50 billion Rural Health Transformation Program appropriated under Public Law 119-21 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act, July 4, 2025); distributed at $10 billion annually FY2026-2030 to all 50 states via CMS.
- FALSEat 204:41
“tax relief it has provided North Carolina families an average of $5,700 per household”
What the data shows: Federal tax relief for North Carolina households averages approximately $4,045 in 2026 (Ways and Means Committee); most NC households receive less than $170 from state income tax cuts (NC OSBM, 2026).
- MOSTLY TRUEat 206:13
“Under Roy Cooper's reign, North Carolina became the most expensive state in the nation for health care costs.”
What the data shows: Forbes ranks North Carolina #1 for highest employer-sponsored health insurance premiums ('plus-one' coverage at $4,781/year, 2024). However, by per-capita spending (BEA), Alaska leads at $14,044/person. By total premiums vs. employee contributions, NC ranks 45th. The ranking is metric-dependent.
- MISLEADINGat 206:13
“health care companies have raised insurance premiums 183%.”
What the data shows: Heritage Foundation analysis cited a 183% cumulative premium increase over Cooper's entire tenure as attorney general and governor (multiple decades). Recent NC DOI data shows 28.6% average increase for 2026 ACA plans; 14.1% for BCBS in 2018.
- MOSTLY TRUEat 206:59
“he released 4,200 hardened criminals from our prisons”
What the data shows: North Carolina released 4,200 inmates under a 2021 COVID-era settlement agreement (3,500 initially agreed, plus 700+ additional releases under population threshold provisions). The NC Sentencing and Policy Advisory Commission reported 48% recidivism among those released.
- FALSEat 206:59
“2,200 of them have been rearrested”
What the data shows: North Carolina Sentencing and Policy Advisory Commission data shows more than 560 inmates released under Cooper's COVID-era settlement were rearrested within two years; 48% recidivism rate on sample of 1,180 released Feb-Jun 2021.
- MISLEADINGat 206:59
“99 for rape or sexual assault”
What the data shows: CooperReleasedHim database lists 99 originally convicted of rape/sexual offense among 4,234 released; 45 of those 99 reoffended. Approximately 80 were rearrested for sex offenses post-release.
- FALSEat 206:59
“25 who went on to commit murder”
What the data shows: North Carolina Sentencing and Policy Advisory Commission data shows 18 released inmates were charged with murder post-release, not 25. The CooperReleasedHim database identifies 70 originally convicted of murder among the 4,234 released, with 9 reoffenders.
- TRUEat 218:03
“A $10,000,000 historic health care fraud settlement announced just a few weeks ago between myself and Texas Children's Hospital”
What the data shows: Texas Children's Hospital agreed to pay $10 million in a settlement finalized August 2026, announced by Attorney General Ken Paxton in May 2026, to resolve Medicaid fraud claims related to gender-transition interventions.
- MISLEADINGat 224:24
“a New York law requiring traditional energy companies to pay $75,000,000,000 for climate adaptation infrastructure”
What the data shows: New York's Climate Change Superfund Act, signed December 2024, specified $75 billion in liability ($3 billion/year over 25 years). However, a federal court blocked enforcement on August 31, 2026, ruling it preempted by federal law.
- MISLEADINGat 226:44· said in 11 broadcasts
“he passed the largest tax cut in American history”
What the data shows: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (Trump admin) reduced revenues by ~$1.9T over 10 years (CBO). The Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 (Bush admin) was ~$1.35T over 10 years. By static revenue loss, TCJA was larger; by some historical measures (e.g., Reagan's 1981 ERTA adjusted for inflation/GDP), comparisons vary. 'Largest in American history' is debatable depending on metric.
- MISLEADINGat 230:37· said in 4 broadcasts
“Roy Cooper lit 3,000 criminals free roaming the streets and they committed twenty plus murders”
What the data shows: Cooper's 2021 COVID-era settlement released approximately 3,500 prisoners. Of those released, 18 were subsequently charged with murder offenses, per North Carolina Sentencing and Policy Advisory Commission data cited by New York Post.
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